Luckshury's Log #3

before we get into anything, if you do not want to see/read from this news letter anymore, you can simply unsubscribe using this button below 👇

If you do wish to stick around, I will cover unreleased trade breakdowns, and some personal observations from my time as a day trader for you to read through and hopefully find some value within.e

TRADE BREAKDOWN #1:

asset: BTC
side: short
result: +1.8r (trade closed)
level of interest - 26938

reasoning for interest:
last high before large set of inefficiencies in price.

Further context

Before taking the trade, there was 2 things which caught my mind:

- the chance of putting in the high of the day within London session is 6% (the lowest of all 4 sessions)
- the high was not taken on either the coinbase (BTCUSD) or the bybit inverse (BTCUSD) charts, with it only being taken on the bybit linear (BTCUSDT) chart within London session.

Execution

executed timeframe - 15m 

- 15m sfp candle
- spike in volume
- extended delta maximum
- trapped new longs

This trade was executed straight upon the 15m candle close, and upon seeing those new longs put into an offside/trapped position. Alongside those new longs that are trapped, I did notice the significant green clusters at the high of the 15m sfp candle, this can be seen outside of the VA (not highlighted region) but still shows significant positive delta cluster shading.

Pulling the trigger - execution occurred on the 15m simply upon the candle close, now I must note, I have changed exchanges in terms of pure execution, and currently I am executing using Bitget for the moment through insilico terminal whilst using bybit for all orderflow. Note - if you do use my Bitget link and trade, it will come in handy for future endeavours of mine, you will not regret it alongside all other generic perks.

Invalidation - invalidation on this was seeing acceptance into the heavy positive delta cluster region, I wanted to mention how on these trades, the speed in which they move towards my TP when it is a winner is fairly fast, and the likelihood that it retraces back into the invalidation candle is fairly low. Hence knowing that, I am more and more often placing my invalidation within the candles HVN/POC etc rather than the absolute high/low to increase final r potential.

Trade Management

Before taking the trade, some further context to let you know about, would be the high hit rate level on the day which was coming in at 26700 thus before seeing taking the trade, I already knew where I would be targeting (26700), this would be my tp1 on the trade.

Beyond Tp1 - after tp1 (26700 - which was also in confluence with the developing day poor low) had hit I had remaining 33% remaining, I'm able to select such percentages of TP through the use of insilico terminal. After this was hit, price actually ran all the way back up and closed the remainder of the trade without hitting any more take profits. This meant the trade ended up being a 1.8r final trade.

I did not trail my stop in this scenario, as I was anticipating some sideways price action throughout the weekend before another move down. This did not happen and I was stopped out at break even on that remaining amount.

OBSERVATIONS:

- session highs and lows, I’ve had these stats on me for a while, in relation to each sessions probability to put in the daily high or daily low regarding the weekday it is. I will not be sharing all those stats with you here, but I will share one of the days to give you some inspiration/insights into what is possible and something you could look into to gain your own edge.

Using this alongside my high hit rate levels, has given me a serious edge, as I'm typically trading reversals, so to know which level has a high chance of being hit alongside which session has the highest or lowest probability of putting in either the daily high or low in, is extremely powerful.

I will leave this as the only observation for now, as I want it to be the last thing you really think about, stat collection, it has seriously given me an edge which is now a large part of my trading, I would want nothing more than for you all to be inspired and take it into your own time and hands going forward.

p.s.

I’ve released the new trading notion workspace, which was worked on for a few weeks for my own trading, it has a simplistic look alongside some complex personalisation to it.

The link below will take you to whop where you can purchase it (one time fee) alongside a video guide/tutorial on how to use the workspace from top to bottom.

If you do not want that, here is a link to a completely free previous version I created which does not have all the same features as the one above 👇

Thank you and I hope you found some value