Luckshury's Log #1

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If you do wish to stick around, I will cover unreleased trade breakdowns, and some personal observations from my time as a day trader for you to read through and hopefully find some value within.

TRADE BREAKDOWN #1:

asset: BTC
side: short
result: +4.1r (still holding 20%)
level of interest - 28046.5

reasoning for interest:
last high in set of series high, before gap to next swing high.

note - 28052, is the level on Coinbase, on my day-trading chart (Bybit BTC/USD) this level is 28046.5

Further context

The move into this level was fuelled off a news event and a tonne of new longs opening off the back of it.

With that being said I had the intention of looking at this move with the potential of a failed auction, the reason for that is because new positions off the back of a news event from my experience generally leads to a large wreckage in favour of those new positions.

Execution

executed timeframe - 5m

- generic sfp candle
- spike in volume
- liquidations (coming into the level)
- extended positive delta

note - extended delta is where final delta and either the delta max or delta min or distantly extended from one another. In the example below you can see. final delta ends negative however you have a fairly high delta max, signifying that there is potentially trapped delta within this candle should it have closed.

Pulling the trigger - as price was pulling back on that exact 5m candle, I was anticipating the trapped value area setup (we did not get this). That’s something important to note is that on the occasion, I will not wait for the candle to necessary close, I may need to get in before the close and using other confluences such as; volume spike, liquidations, extended delta, etc. most of the time allow me to not need to wait for the close and increase the likelihood of winning the trade, even if I am anticipating a trapped value area.

Invalidation on this trade, would be above that overall high made, this Is where I calculate my risk from. Why above this high? I am reacting to the orderflow, the data given is showing me a potential reversal, coming above this high would invalidate my thinking and my read in the orderflow in that case, and also increase drastically the likelihood that. We would be seeing a larger run up in price after seeing accepting into the inefficiencies.

Trade Management

Using a fixed range pull of the ongoing uptrend (at the time) I was targeting 27420 for my first initial tp1 with the knowledge that this uptrend could still potentially continue should we hold from that level. tp1 was then hit for taking off 77% roughly.

If my first tp is beyond the point of 2-3R then the size in which I take off the trade is usually above the 60%-70% mark.

Beyond tp1 - I will then move stop to a trailing stop method (using some theory of evolving R) simply moving the stop in this case to the most recent swing high with the assumption that should we reclaim that swing high, It would be more beneficial to take off the remaining profit rather than letting it run back and lose that remaining positive R.

OBSERVATIONS:

#1 - Been keeping an eye on the opens and closes of session candles, using the session candles in a similar fashion to how I would mark out daily/weekly/monthly levels however applying that same methodology to session candles can provide some really good intra-day levels for me to be trading from.

Especially useful from my testing so far, if this is used along side session naked point of controls. (i.e - naked session poc + session level = level of interest)

#2 - Trades which categorise as “sfps of an sfp” if lasting longer than 2 hours without hitting a minimum of a 2r target within that time limit will more often than not end in price taking out that pivot again. (Increased likelihood of trade ending in a loss)

#3 - Extended delta trades are extremely profitable, the 2nd most profitable tag of the many in which I note down. To understand extended delta in more detail I explain it here, but the reason as to why I think this is, is due to it essentially signifying trapped traders and a reversal through one piece of information. I will expand upon this more within a video however I put this in here for you to do some homework on the above and not to underestimate this information if read correctly.

Thank you and I hope you found some value